Classic Game Review: Speculator

“As of 6:49 AM CST, reports from Hong Kong Gold indicate that gold is weaker against the US dollar.” He quickly calls his broker on the phone and places an order to sell gold “short” (that is, he sells gold he doesn’t currently have assuming he can buy it at a lower price before having to “deliver”) . In SPECULATOR, he has the opportunity to interpret news reports and estimate their effect on market conditions. Unlike many simulations that reflect price changes over weekly or monthly periods, SPECULATOR pretty much puts you in the hole. Simulates operations in “real time” with a scale of 1 minute of game time equal to 6 minutes of “real time”. The charts even allow you the privilege of watching your broker answer the phone and watch the floor broker move to the appropriate position to execute his order on the exchange floor.

The realism used in this simulation is remarkable. One can buy at the current market value; buy below market value using an MIT. (Market if touched: becomes an active market order when a certain price is reached) order; sell at a preset MIT. order; will sell at a given price OB (or better – will sell at a given price or at a higher price); sell short; use a distribution order (simultaneous sale and purchase of related contracts that are related to each other); using GTC (Good Until Cancelled: the order remains with the specialist on the floor of the exchange until a certain price or contingency is reached), OCO (One Cancels Other) – a compensation mechanism in which if a part is filled of the order, the other part is canceled) orders; and have the flexibility to execute orders at the immediate beginning of the trading session (On Open) or at the end of the session (On Close).

The effect of all of these options (although not all of them are immediately available to the first-level or “novice” player and must be earned as a performance bonus as the player upgrades to “Speculator” and “Floor Trader”) is give the player a more intimate understanding of the mechanics of the futures markets. It also seems to allow the player to feel more “in charge” of the situation because they can communicate the EXACT conditions for the investment.

It is also a multiplayer simulation and one of the few “realistic” simulations based on real market conditions that allow this. TYCOON reflects actual market conditions and an excellent degree of realism, but only 1 investor can compete in the same market environment. In SPECULATOR, up to 6 players can compete at the same time. However, this feature also presents a problem. It is very difficult for more than 1 player to use the keyboard at the same time. When the market is about to open, there is only 1 minute to enter “On Open” orders, whether there is 1 player or 6. Also, since the market continues to move, even when 1 player is in trading mode, there is an inherent advantage in entering one’s orders first. The scaled “real time” is a vital ingredient to the feeling of being there within the simulation, but there must be some other way to provide input from the players than the keyboard or there must be a function that allows the “freeze” of the “real time” until all players can enter their orders.

Another important factor is the data disk. Because events, contingencies, and price fluctuations are driven by a true 45-day profile of market conditions on three different exchanges (Chicago Board of Trade, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and New York Commodity Exchange), there is a significant correlation between what may orange juice do when you first play the game and what may orange juice do every time you play the game. To circumvent this trend towards equality.

The software plans to market several different data discs to reflect different market stories. These will be a welcome addition to the game as they will keep the game fresh and playable. Despite the fact that SPECULATOR allows the investor to play much closer to the market than its closest competitor, TYCOON.

However, it is more difficult to be a fundamentalist in SPECULATOR as one only has a 30 day history chart to work from where TYCOON offers yearly histories of each product in chart form. It is easier to be a technician in SPECULATOR; however, since one can place a buy-sell order immediately after the news that will affect the basic supply and demand of the commodity hits the ticker. For example, you read that meteorologists are predicting a severe winter on the East Coast (not an actual event). This indicates that there could be a frost in Florida that would reduce the supply of orange juice. Reduced supply means higher demand, which means higher future prices. So you want to buy orange juice futures before anyone else. In TYCOON, there is a clear advantage in following the news, but the price fluctuation has already started by the time the player reads about it. In SPECULATOR, the player has to move quickly before losing the advantage that the news gives him.

SPECULATOR is the first trading program I’ve seen that eclipses Blue Chip Software’s fine line of trading simulations in tutorial value. The two documentation books that come with the program (the Game Manual, which explains everything from starting the program to how to place an order, and the Marketplace Reference Guide, which explains everything from sizing a contract to the factors that influence prices) are understandable and constitute a valuable resource to carefully read the financial pages and/or publications distributed by brokerage firms. Between the two booklets, almost every conceivable order is defined from the perspective of actual trading and play.

SPECULATOR compares favorably to any other investment simulation on the market to date. It’s competitively priced for the base game and should be an especially worthwhile investment with the addition of new data discs. I look forward to the projected release of a stock market simulation in the near future.

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