NFL Spotlight #97: Fast Offensive Rating Discrepancies (ROF)

Here’s a situation likely to be appreciated by those ‘purists’ who believe that the effectiveness of a team quick game it is the most important factor in deciding who wins and ultimately who covers the spread. These are teams with a superior Classification of urgent crimes (ROF) compared to his current opponent and has produced a record of 135-52 ATS since 1994, after adding a number of other key conditions.

Very briefly, the ROF of a team is calculated by taking the average of a team rushing yards in attack and adjusting this figure to the quality of hasty defenses this team has faced the season to date.

An ROF above 0 indicates a team that is stronger than average in this department, while an ROF below 0 means the opposite.

In the case of Situation #97, we will look for teams with an ROF that is at least +0.50 points higher than your opponents rating.

When it comes to ROF, 1/2 point is significant and will usually mean a difference of 10-12 positions in the league standings for this stat.

On their own, teams that have a much higher ROF aren’t incredibly profitable, but when playing against a team that did well in terms of outright wins the previous season, we have a valuable handicapping tool at our disposal. .

Since 1994, teams with an ROF of at least 0.50 points more than their current opponent are an incredible 313-218 ATS (58.9%) between week 4 and week 17 of the regular season, when this opponent also happened to be a playoff team last season. Over the last 14 years this trend has produced a profit of $7,320 when wagering $110.00 to win back $100.00 on each game.

He is one of the most powerful tendencies I have come across in recent years and has made a profit in every season since 1994 except one (2006) and was a solid 32-21 ATS last year.

So what is the real problem with this situation and why is it so successful? The answer to this question can be found by taking a closer look at some of the statistics behind it.

Of the 531 teams involved in this situation in the last 14 years, 63.0% of these have had a winning record, or a record of at least .500, however, the average differential has been +0.7 points and this team has also been an underdog 54.4% of the time.

Another clue lies in the fact that this situation is hottest in week 4 and 5 (the first 2 weeks of the season is active). Teams with a much higher ROF that face a playoff team from last year are 59-27 ATS before week 6.

What these stats reveal is that bettors have an inherent bias toward teams that were in the playoffs the previous year, especially when betting on games early in the following season.

This bias towards teams that made it to the last postseason can effectively create a situation where there is “line value” in betting. against them, especially in the event that they currently face a team that is running the ball much more effectively.

Recent playoff teams are actually a lousy bet until week 16 of the following year and have an all-time record of 1077-1184 ATS since 1994 for a winning percentage of just 47.6%.

Now while this trend is extremely profitable using just the 2 main conditions listed above, there is a third and final condition I would like to add to greatly reduce the amount of potential betting involved while maintaining a similar level of profit: essentially increase our ROI (return on investment).

This last condition specifies that, in addition to a significant ROF advantage over its current opponent, the team in question must also have an ROF that is at least 0.50 points above his ROF from last season..

Teams in this situation have a habit of being undervalued due to the same factors that make recent playoff teams a questionable bet: Rookie and intermediate bettors just can’t help but make bets based on what a team did last year. or even the year. before and this will always affect the line.

By including only teams that have seen a significant improvement in their running game from last season, the record for this trend improves to 152-79 ATS (65.8%) since 1994.

All the details of this trend are listed below, including a final ‘tensioner’ that further improves its results.

Situational Trend Summary #97

Primary conditions (building blocks)

1) Fast Attack Rating (ROF) – Opponent’s ROF > 0.5.

2) Current ROF – ROF of the last seasons > 0.5.

3) The current opponent was a playoff team last season.

Secondary conditions (tensioners)

1) Include only games between Week 4 and 17.

2) Exclude pass attempts for situation statistics (PAF)

ASMR: -0.1

% of housing: 50.5

Dog%: 57.7

SDIS%: 96.9

Weight %: 63.3

ESP: +1.2

Best Teams: PHI(17); MIN(16); ATL(13); OAK(12)

location records

Overall (since ’94): 135-52 TTY

2007 season: 13-3 ATS

2006 season: 11-6 ATS

2005 season: 9-1 ATS

2004 season: 11-4 ATS

Last 3 results. Select in parentheses.

2007 WK15–MIN 20 CHI 13 (MIN -10) L

2007 WK14 — CLE 24 NYJ 18 (CLE -3.5) W

2007 WK13–TB 27 NOT 23 (TB +3)W

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