Spring practices are on the books and fall camps will be here before you know it, so that means having an early jump into the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you understand what to expect next year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 college football preview.
# 59 – North Carolina Tar Heels 5-6 SU; 6-5 ATS
Fargo’s Take North Carolina has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the country for the past eight seasons, having had no more than two consecutive winning or losing seasons in that span. Above-average years have been followed by bad years and vice versa, so no one knows where the Tar Heels end up this season. They are in the middle of the group in the nation for that reason alone. The offense will bring in a new quarterback in a new system for a new offensive coordinator, while the defense needs to replace four key players from last season. The offense was horrible last season and the new looks can only make things better, but the real question is how much it improves. North Carolina altered wins and losses in its last seven games last year and a tough three-point home loss to Maryland cost the Tar Heels a chance for a second straight bowl appearance. They could return in 2006, as the calendar is on their side down the stretch.
Starters Returning To Offense – 5 North Carolina finished 104th in the country in scoring offense and 102nd in total offense last season, which was the worst ranking since John Bunting took office six years ago. New offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti comes from Fresno St., where he guided the Bulldogs to some very successful offensive outings. He brings a new offensive philosophy in which running the ball will be the priority to accompany a passing attack on the field. Running back Ronnie McGill is back for his senior season, but injuries have slowed him down, so it still remains a question. Quarterback duty is likely to go to Joe Dailey, the transfer from Nebraska, who has the most signal caller experience at camp. The offensive line is extremely young, as are the wide receivers, so while there seems to be improvement, there are also lingering issues that need to be addressed immediately.
Games Returning to Defense – 7 The Tar Heels had a big change in defense last season, improving by 97 ypg since 2004 and allowing the fewest points since 2001. If it weren’t for allowing 69 points to Louisville, the scoring average was 21.9 ppg which improves the scoring defense’s ranking from 63 to 28. While it will be difficult to replace four of the defense’s best players last year, there are plenty of capable replacements who should be able to help out right away. The defensive line has plenty of experience, while the secondary brings back three starters from the 49th-ranked pass defense. The team’s best linebacker is Larry Edwards, but his return is in doubt due to academic problems in the spring. He is the top returning tackler and if he can’t qualify in the fall, he will be a huge success.
Schedule North Carolina played the nation’s sixth-toughest schedule last season and still almost reaches a game of bowling. The board is not that difficult this time, but playing for ACC makes it quite difficult. The Tar Heels start the season with three straight home games with one of them against Virginia Tech in their first conference game. After a three-game home stay, North Carolina has to travel for back-to-back games at Clemson and Miami, both certain losses. A conference home game against South Florida is after those contests and then a trip to Notre Dame comes after a brief two-game ACC run. North Carolina closes the year with home games against Georgia Tech and NC State before heading to rival Duke for the final. Florida St. and Boston College at the Atlantic did not meet the schedule.
You can bet on … This is one of the toughest teams in the country, as there are so many unknowns in Chapel Hill. The offense needs to curdle immediately with two tough games to start the season and a 2-1 start is vital, but games against the Tigers and Hurricanes could possibly lead to a 1-4 start with Bunting being fired more than likely. . The Tar Heels are just 5-13 against the number at home when scoring, but 4-1 as favorites on the road in the same span. They are likely not to be favorites often, as the first chalk game will be the first home game against Rutgers and then not again until the game against South Florida. That is a great competition for both teams that will feature two good defenses against rebuilding offenses and the result could be of great help to both teams.